The election predictions for the 2024 presidential election of Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump are neck and neck, with no clear winner in sight. Until election night closes on Tuesday, November 5, there is no guaranteed victory for either side.
Spencer Goidel, an assistant professor of political science at Auburn University who specializes in American political behavior, explained that before a reliable poll, political scientists had to rely on past election results and fundamentals like economic conditions for election predictions. While it is difficult to use past elections due to the lack of comparable elections, economic conditions such as GDP growth are a stronger indicator of who will win, especially for the incumbent.
Goidel pointed to the political analysis website 538 for information on modern polling methodology and 2024 presidential predictions. 538 methodology it is based on a combination of weighted polls and fundamentals, which include economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. As of October 1, 538 predicted an incredibly close race, with a 56% chance Harris would win.
According to Goidel, although polls favor Harris because of 3% economic growth and flat inflation, the electoral college favors Republicans. However, polls that used common economic factors were wrong in predicting the 2020 and 2016 elections, underestimating Trump’s support.
Goidel said his reluctance to take a position on who will win also stems from potential swings in the polls. Since the 2000s, response rates to telephone surveys have dropped from 36% to 3%, so surveyors have shifted to online panels that rely on professional surveys.
“That’s why our polls can be so skewed. If they’re not at all representative of the broader public, they’re getting a very skewed picture of what America thinks about the presidential race,” Goidel said.
Goidel defined “highly skewed” as 3-5%. He explained that this margin of error is actually fair, but when voting for a 50-50 presidential election, a margin of error of 5% can mean that a poll predicting victory for one candidate over another is incorrect.
This gap closes as election day approaches, however, according to 538 graph of the expected change in the vote margin for a candidate, there is an expected change of 5% in the 41 days before the election. However, three days before November 5, 538 expects this change to fall below 1%.
When asked how young voters can influence the election, Goidel explained that they will have a limited impact. The generation’s low voter turnout, lack of turnout, and small size as a voting bloc compared to Baby Boomers means they are unlikely to sway the election either way.
If Gen Z has any electoral power this election, they may be defying typical expectations that they are liberal, left-leaning voters.
“There have been remarkable polls showing that Gen Z is probably more conservative than the millennial generation. If that were to happen, that would be bad for Democrats in swing states, or Kamala Harris in swing states specifically,” Goidel said. “College students don’t really participate in polls. So, you know, maybe we we’re getting a skewed sample of General Z.”
Regardless, Goidel felt it was vital that people understand the uncertainty when it comes to forecasts and polls. He explained that if the probability of Harris winning the election is 70%, that does not guarantee her victory. This means that in a scenario where the election could be repeated ten times, she would lose three of them.
When asked who he predicts will be the next president, Goidel said: “I don’t know. I think if you had to choose, I would say Kamala, but I wouldn’t sleep well at night.”
Dr. Mitchell Brown, Curtis O Liles III professor of political science and an expert on election administration, does not predict a clear winner, but she noted that Harris’ surprise campaign has been well received by Democratic voters after concerns about President Joe Biden’s health. .
“There was a lot of fear, even among Democratic supporters, of a Biden presidency. And the way the Harris nomination came about was unusual, and it was exciting and energizing,” Brown said. “And so, there’s been a collective celebration among Democrats, I think, that they shouldn’t have voted for Biden.”
Brown explained that current national polls may show Harris as the projected winner, but quality polls in swing states such as North Carolina and Arizona provide a better prediction.
“What matters now are the people in the states where there are real electoral colleges, who are not party loyal, and who are eligible to vote. And the question is, can either party convince those people that they should spend voting time?” Brown said.
People may be inclined to bandwagon on the “win” side of the forecast. When voting, individuals should carefully weigh their options and vote for the candidate they truly believe is the best.
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“Your vote should be about policy, values and principles, and that’s what students should pay attention to when they’re trying to decide who to vote for,” Brown said.
Dr. Joseph Aistrup, professor of political science, identified that state polls describe trends about voter interests, but may fail to reveal what voter turnout looks like, the key to winning close races. Aistrup said it goes to the founder of 538 Nate Silver’s website for knowledge on election predictions.
Aistrup shared that he doesn’t yet know who will win this election, but on election night, he will consult a map of the average election result in swing states like North Carolina since 2008 to seen if at the district level, a party can maintain support and participation at the level.
“To me, those top counties are kind of the key, because a lot of times you’re going to see that’s kind of a uniform one, two, three percent change that’s just not happening in North Carolina, but it’s happening across the country. . “, said Aistrup.
Any candidate trending up until the election would be in an advantageous position, and if the election were held today, the trends are positive for Harris.
Aistrup explained that since the latest economic data shows that the economy is good, positive changes in the polls for Harris may stem from people questioning the Trump campaign’s failed strategy of attacking the economy of the Biden-Harris administration.
Aistrup questioned the impact of early voting in the two weeks before the election because if Harris can’t maintain her growing momentum, she could lose to Trump.
“Trump is looking to use these other social issues to try to bring back to his fold more conservative working-class voters, especially those who are religious leaders and very conservative, some in a state like Georgia with a very large evangelical population. ,” Aistrup. said of Trump in response to Harris.
Like Brown and Goidel, Aistrup did not believe young voters will have much of an impact in this election due to low turnout and small size.
“I don’t look at them [Gen Z] as a monolithic group I think here in the south. Gen Z is a pretty conservative group, depending on, you know, just depending on what kind of degree you’re talking about,” Aistrup noted. “But I think in general, Gen Zs across the country tend to be leaner, more toward liberal issues.”
Since Gen Z is generally left-leaning, Aistrup said Biden and Obama’s ability to get masses of young voters out to vote, especially in large urban centers, actually had an impact on their success. electoral. If Harris can repeat that success in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania, the election could swing toward the Democrats.
“I just don’t know who’s going to win,” Aistrup said. “I think it’s pretty close.”
Believing that Americans in both parties will question the legitimacy of any post-election vote, Aistrup admitted: “I wish this election was a landslide for one candidate or the other, just so we could get out of this mess.”
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