- There are many theories about the “whale” who bet millions on Trump’s victory.
- As of Wednesday, the person or entity had bet $46 million on Trump winning the election.
- “Trump has been extremely popular among gamblers since the 2016 election,” one source noted.
The “whale” betting big on Donald Trump winning next month’s election has left political and betting commentators scratching their heads, although they have a few theories about what could happen.
According to Polymarket data on Wednesday, a person or entity believed to be behind four accounts on crypto-based betting platform Polymarket has placed about $46 million on the former president’s victory.
It is unclear who owns the four Polymarket accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie – although they have displayed characteristics that suggest they are related, a Wall Street Journal report said last week.
The betting activity has raised questions about who the whale is and what their motives might be, beyond simply making money on a potentially lucrative bet. It has left pundits wondering what is going on, although some were willing to offer their own betting theories.
Here’s what some had to say about the whale who is throwing his weight around in the betting market.
1. Betting is an influence campaign
According to Paul Krishnamurty, a betting market expert and political writer for BetOnline, the big bets could be an attempt to influence the election by generating publicity for the former president and making it appear that his chances of winning are much higher than the polls suggest.
Trump leads Harris in Polymarket, with an estimated 64% chance of winning the election, while the odds of a Harris victory are around 36% on the site. That’s a stark contrast to the polls, with Trump and Harris virtually tied based on the latest polling average of 538.
Krishnamurty cautioned that it is impossible to know whether the bets are a true opinion of how the race will swing.
“But it’s equally possible to believe that the bets were placed with the intention of changing the narrative in Trump’s favor,” he added.
Google search interest for “Donald Trump” has increased 24% over the past week, according to search analytics tool Glimpse. Search volume over the past month peaked on October 20, around the time Polymarket’s whale hit the markets.
Google search interest for “Donald Trump” has increased 31% over the past week, according to Glimpse. Google Trends/Glimpse
Donald Trump also climbed to the number one trending topic on social media as of Wednesday morning, according to social intelligence firm LunarCrush.
Similar types of betting have been seen in previous elections as well, Krishnamurty noted. He pointed to several elections in the UK and the US, when some bookmakers were placing large sums of money on a clear “loser” candidate.
“I would just say that this kind of thing has happened before,” he added. “Trump has been uniquely popular among gamblers since the 2016 election, when he was actually an underdog.
If it is an attempt to influence the election, Krishnamurty doubts it will be successful.
“I find it hard to believe that anyone is changing the way they vote based on who is leading the betting markets,” he added.
Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan defended the market’s integrity in an interview with The New Yorker this week.
“There’s nothing stopping people from going and buying something that they think is cheap, but they’re not doing it right now because nobody has enough conviction that it should be worth more,” Coplan told magazine, referring to betting on. Harris winning.
2. It is a real bet on the outcome of the election
Polymarket’s whale may just be extra bullish on Trump’s Nov. 5 victory, said Joe Vezzani, CEO of LunarCrush, which monitors social media, cryptocurrency exchanges and influencers to track crypto sentiment.
Vezzani and other commentators have argued that betting markets can be more accurate than polls, given that people are betting real money and often react more quickly to developments in the race.
He said the increase in betting in favor of Trump may also be a function of the approaching election.
“I think the way people make decisions when there’s money on the line is different than how they’d probably make a decision if there wasn’t,” Vezzani said, though he believed the election would still be a meeting. narrow. “I think it’s still TBD for this election.”
3. The whale is trying to shift the betting odds to win more money
The user believed to be behind the Polymarket accounts may also be deliberately trying to move betting odds with the aim of winning more money, Krishnamurty speculated.
The boom in betting on the former president has increased the value of those positions. Krishnamurty noted that Polymarket allows users to close their positions ahead of the presidential election.
“Let’s take the hypothetical that it’s a real plan to manipulate the market, shall we?” Krishnamurthy said. “You get money if you want it. So there’s no risk.”
If the bet was split into four accounts, it could be a sign that the whale is trying to cash in on short-term moves in the market, Vezzani said. Multiple accounts give the trader an opportunity to sell quickly from several positions to catch small moves in the market, he noted.
“One thing is that Polymarket, it’s not a bet on an outcome. You don’t have to wait until election night, so you can add or move money whenever you want based on the price increase,” he said.
Again, there’s no way to prove the theory without coming out to the account holders and explaining their motivation, Krishnamurty and Vezzani reiterated.
Bets on Trump at Polymarket, however, have increased over the past week. As of Wednesday morning, open positions for a Donald Trump win increased to $756 million, compared to $482 million in open positions for a Kamala Harris win.
Polymarket did not respond to Business Insider’s request for comment.